Waves for Wednesday – more swell and a little storminess

Wednesday will have some more waves but thanks to conditions it doesn’t look like a surf day.

The current mix of WNW energy will increase on Wednesday with both the short and longer-period swells gaining a bit of strength. We will also have a new pulse of SSW swell starting to push into the mix…not a ton…but enough to break it up at the combo spots.

Wave heights will build into the chest-shoulder high range at most exposed W facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW facing breaks in San Diego and Ventura as well as the best combo breaks in the other regions can expect sizes in the chest-head high range fairly consistently with some overhead sets mixing in at times. San Diego looks like it will be the most exposed and will be the most consistent but there will be plenty of waves at the other regions as well.

Winds and weather are where the wheels come off…we have this lovely storm/cold front sitting off the coast.



The current forecast models are showing the front brushing over Socal and heading off to the NW over central California…enough to give us a few scattered showers and some funky windage. Not a real storm but enough to sort of hack up the surf shape. Here is what the current COAMPS model is calling for…



It is mostly onshore wind on this model…but there is a little weird buffer between the stronger winds off the coast and the actual beach. This is showing 7-8am…so there may be a chance at some surf in select areas. Basically I would expect variable onshore flow around 5-8 knots tomorrow morning for most areas and some stronger S-WSW winds around the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas. The afternoon looks even sloppier with W winds around 10-15 knots.

What I am hoping is that it gets really cold tonight…if it does there is a shot at a little high-pressure ridge setting up over Socal that could bump the front further north…leaving us with some manageable winds in the morning. I don’t have a lot of faith in this happening (it is the worst winter ever)…but it is worth watching for.

Basically I would plan on giving the cams a check in the morning and, if your local spot looks clean enough, then heading to the beach. It is supposed to be drizzly, a little cool, and have some onshore sickness…so I don’t think it will be worth driving very far. Hopefully we will get lucky and we can get some of this swell mix before the winds tweak it too much.

01:47AM LST 4.8 H
10:25AM LST 0.1 L
06:06PM LST 2.8 H
08:29PM LST 2.7 L

Thursday’s Surf – Marginal but with a little more energy

Thursday isn’t looking like much of a surf day...

We will have a little more swell in the water from a couple of different sources but local winds are still pretty unstable. The winds didn’t do a very good job cleaning up this morning...there were a couple of rideable pockets but for the most part it was pretty sloppy. The current forecast has these winds continuing overnight, slowing down a touch in the morning, and then increasing again by Thursday afternoon, which needless to say is pretty lame.

Swellwise we are going to see a touch more energy in the water...local WNW-NW windswell is going to come up a couple of notches, we are going to have some longer-period NW energy (290-300 so it will be on the shadowed side), and there will be some slightly stronger SW swell (205-220) that pulses up in the background. The CDIP is showing a bit of the energy...but most of it is chop from the winds this afternoon so don’t get too excited.



For all of that activity it still looks like most of the average spots are going to hold around knee-waist high with some less consistent chest high sets sneaking through as the swells mix together. The standout combo spots and good NW facing breaks will have surf in the chest-high range fairly consistently and some bigger sets pushing through on the lower tides.

Winds are forecast to stay onshore overnight...but lighten up slightly for the morning. Right now it looks like we can expect WNW flow around 5-10 knots for the morning, lighter in some pockets around LA. It should have enough leftover chop that shape stays pretty funky into the dawn patrol. NW winds get back on the horse and come onshore around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

With the winds, and the local windswell, holding into tomorrow I think that shape is going to be a bit ugly, particularly at the more open/exposed beaches. Even though there will be more size I expect to see those scattered, sort of sloppy, stacked up lines that you normally get with the shorter period swells. Personally I wouldn’t spend a lot of time checking it...maybe a cam check during the dawn patrol to see if the winds possibly laid down more than the forecast is calling for...but if it looks bumpy early don’t expect much of a clean up through the day.

Winds do look a little better by Friday and even cleaner by the weekend...there should be a little bit of swell still pushing through as well...so it looks a bit more surfable over the next couple of days.

Here are the tides for Thursday...

03:34AM LST 0.8 L
09:25AM LST 4.8 H
03:52PM LST 0.1 L
09:59PM LST 4.8 H