Waves for Wednesday – Fading swell and sketchy weather

Wednesday will have some waves but with the weather expected to get all weird and the winds being a pain in the ass I don’t think it will be much of a surf day for most people.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of dropping WNW swell (280-300) and some background S-SW swell mix from the Southern Hemi.



Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets at times. The standout NW breaks, again in the usually “better on NW swells” regions of Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some sets going head high.

Winds and weather look funky…the forecast models are calling for a fast moving cold front to push through sometime on Wednesday and in the process mix in a weird pocket of moisture as it does. The current weather forecast is for cloudy skies and a chance of rain for the morning, with increasing onshore winds and showers for the afternoon, particularly up towards the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas.

Check out the COAMPS forecast for tomorrow morning…this is showing about 5am. According to this it looks like variable onshore/side shore winds for Ventura/SB. Offshore E winds for LA…and then onshore winds again down in San Diego and Orange County. When I see things like this on the forecast I mentally label it “unstable”, which usually means the model doesn’t know what is going to happen and is just picking random crap to show us.



That being said...I don’t think we should completely write-off tomorrow morning, there are some waves which, unless the wind is for sure howling onshore, means that it will be worth at least a cam-check in the morning. I wouldn’t plan on a lot of surfing, or it even being that great of surf if the winds are light…but at least there would be something to ride. Anyway conditions look a lot better later this week and into the weekend (more waves too)…you might want butter up the warden by doing a few chores...so you can score some in a few days.

Here are the tides…

12/30/2009 Wednesday
12:50AM LST 2.1 L
07:05AM LST 6.6 H (you suck tide!)
02:40PM LST -1.4 L
09:05PM LST 3.6 H

Waves for Monday – fading but a few fun ones still hanging in there

Monday looks rideable…our morning conditions will clean, most of the weekend crowd will be gone…but the fading swell mix, and still sort-of swampy tidal swings will keep it from really getting all that good.

In the water we have a mix of overlapping WNW-NW swells (285-300 both of which are slowly fading), some background SSW swell (190-220), and a touch of local windswell.



The average WNW facing spots and the ok combo spots can expect surf in the waist high range with some chest high+ sets occasionally slipping through. The standout NW facing spots, like those in Southern Ventura and the better exposed areas in San Diego county, will see more consistent waist-chest high surf but with some shoulder high (and maybe slightly bigger) sets rolling through on the lower tide.

Winds look good tomorrow…mostly light and variable to light/moderate offshore winds will help keep things clean through the morning. Look for building onshore winds by the afternoon…hitting in the NW 10-15 knot range later in the day.



Overall I think tomorrow will be rideable, but not all that exciting. The swell mix will be backing off and the morning tides are a little swampy (though not as bad as the 6’ highs we had last week)…and so our surf is going to be a bit soft in the morning. I would plan on bringing your smaller wave gear…or at least boards that can help you power through the morning softies. Personally I am going to hunt around the local beachbreak/sandbars and see if I can find a shallow sandbar that is handling the tide.

Here are the tides…have a good week!

06:19AM LDT 3.8 H
11:26AM LDT 3.1 L
04:24PM LDT 4.0 H
11:45PM LDT 0.9 L

Friday’s Surf – Sort of rideable on the low tide

Friday is looking surfable…but with the overall swell mix dropping it won’t be much of a surf day compared to earlier in the week.

We are going to see a mix of overlapping S-SW swells (180-210) both of which will be slowly dropping…and a touch of background NW energy.



Most spots are going to back down into the knee-waist high range…with a few rare waist high+ sets through the lower tides. Standout S facing breaks, and the best combo spots, will be slightly bigger…around waist-chest high…again with a few rare plus sets now and then. Overall it is going to be pretty inconsistent, sort-of soft, and a bit slow thanks to the lower swell periods and the fatter tides that roll through in the morning.

Winds look ok…light and variable for most areas, maybe a touch of texture at the really exposed spots. Afternoon winds come onshore out of the WNW around 10-14 knots.



It won’t be anything special tomorrow…just sort of leftovers but not completely flat…a good beginners day most likely. We can still expect the biggest surf (that being a relative term) through Orange County…and a few other scattered areas that have decent southerly exposure. I don’t think it will be worth spending a lot of time looking for waves tomorrow, if you find a semi-decent looking shoulder get out on it, but don’t drive all day looking for one.

Here are the tides…

02:18AM LDT 3.1 H
05:36AM LDT 2.8 L
12:27PM LDT 5.4 H
08:48PM LDT 0.4 L

Thursdays Surf – Less Poo and less swell

Even though our swell mix is backing down Thursday looks like a surf day. Conditions look good for the morning and there should be enough swell leftover/holding that we can find a couple of sections here and there.

We are going to have a mix of fading WNW windswell and some smaller but holding S-SW overlapping swells (185-205). Check out the Dana Point Buoy from this evening…



Most spots will be a bit soft with the higher tide in the morning…so expect less than great shape in some areas…particularly spots that only pull in the windswell…the combo of short-period energy and a higher AM tide is going to shut down shape. On average we can expect knee-waist high surf for most exposed breaks.

The better S facing spots or the decent combo spots will have waist-chest high sets.

Standout combo breaks in San Diego, particularly the spots that can handle a little higher of a tide, will have waist-shoulder high sets through the morning.

Winds look good…light to moderate offshore NE flow for the morning, generally under 10 knots. W-NW winds build onshore around lunchtime and top out around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.

The surf won’t be firing or anything tomorrow but it should still be playful if you are careful about picking your spots. I probably wouldn’t drive to far to get waves but if you are close to the beach and don’t mind the cleaner but still questionable water quality then you should plan in a quick beach check.

Here are the tides

05:00AM LST 3.9’ High
10:09AM LST 3.1’ Low
03:01PM LST 3.9’ High
10:23PM LST 0.8’ Low

PS – A note on TS Polo (Marco!)…it died out pretty fast. No swell expected from him.