Wednesday’s Waves – New SSW swell mixing it up

Wednesday isn’t looking like much of a surf day for most of Socal…but there may be a few pockets hiding out there through the morning.

In the water we will have a mix of new SSW swell (190-210) moving in and mixing with some building local NW windswell and a touch of leftover S swell still hanging on from last weekend.



Most spots will be in the waist-high range with some chest high sets. The S-SW standouts and the best combo breaks will see some chest-shoulder high sets on the lower tides.

Basically it looks like onshore W-SW winds on tap for most of Socal tomorrow morning…with wind speeds holding below 10-12 knots for most spots…but still strong enough to keep it pretty chunky if you don’t have something that can knock down the onshore bump. Los Angeles will actually be a bit cleaner than other areas…sort of small mutant eddy is set to pull together around midmorning that will help swing winds around from S-SSE, which isn’t that bad for areas like the South Bay. It won’t be clean enough to drive very far…but if you live close to those areas you might at least keep an eye on the beach. W winds around 12-15 knots with gusts nearing 20 knots will push in through the afternoon.



The surf isn’t looking all that exciting on Wednesday…just sort of marginal for most areas. Sure you might be able to get out and ride a few but they won’t be very clean and conditions may be a little frustrating. Your best bet will be at a shallower beach break that has some protection from the light/moderate winds we see in the morning…or some of the LA county breaks that may end up being a little cleaner than other spots.

Here are the tides…

05/19/2010 Wednesday
12:55AM LDT 5.0 H
08:40AM LDT -0.3 L
03:42PM LDT 3.7 H
08:38PM LDT 2.5 L

Monday’s Wind – still looking nasty

Well with temps dropping tonight I was hoping that the late afternoon weather models would give us a little better news that it has been…but nope…Monday does not look like a surf day.

In the water we are going to have a mix of building NW windswell and some background SSW-SW swell (190-210)…but local winds are forecast to be pretty ugly. Onshore flow that picked up strong on Sunday will continue through Monday…and probably most of Tuesday as well (it does however clean up around the middle of the week.)



Size for Monday is going to depend a lot on the wind tonight…right now it is looking like a new lump of head high+ NW windswell will be moving in by the morning but if winds get too steep, or don’t maintain the right speed overnight it may not really pull in that much new size. The SW facing breaks will average around chest high with some shoulder high sets…the combo spots, if they were clean would be a bit bigger…but most likely most breaks will be pretty hacked up tomorrow.

Winds look bad for tomorrow…W winds around 15-20 knots will get established by midmorning and will blow through most of the day. Not much eddy circulation expected so look for cold temps and consistent W flow. Orange County and parts of North LA will have lighter winds, around 10+ knots for the morning…but they will fill in pretty fast and I don’t expect much clean up.



I wouldn’t spend a ton of time looking for surf on Monday…the winds don’t leave many places to hide. Basically I would get up and just make sure that the wind is onshore, sometimes the colder land temps can stall out the onshore flow in the morning…but even if they are light don’t count on a whole lot of cleanliness…there is likely to be some bump leftover from the night.

Here are the tides…

05/10/2010 Monday
02:04AM LDT 0.6 L
07:54AM LDT 3.6 H
01:28PM LDT 1.2 L
07:39PM LDT 5.1 H

Waves for the Weekend – Fun Saturday morning…getting funky on Sunday

Saturday looks like a surf day, particularly through the morning. Sunday looks windy, but there may get a eddy to form and shed off the worst of it.

Saturday the S swell (180-200) will still be in the water but it will be slowly fading throughout the day. Local WNW-NW windswell will start to creep up and may start to break up the S swell at the combo spots.



The average S facing breaks will be in the waist-shoulder high range on Saturday…biggest through the morning and getting smaller and less consistent through the afternoon. The standout S facing spots, mostly in OC, will have some head high sets through the morning. Look for a few bigger, more crossed up peaks at the combo spots.

Winds look mostly light in the morning with slightly offshore light/variable to even light NE winds for a few areas. Look for these winds to turn onshore out of the W-SW around 10-12 knots for the afternoon and possibly strengthen a bit more by late in the day.



Sunday the S-swell (180-200) will fade into the background as new SSW-SW swell (190-210) and increasing local windswell fill in.



Size will come up a touch more on Sunday…but conditions don’t look so hot. Look for most S facing spots to see surf in the waist-shoulder high range…about the same as Saturday with a touch more pep thanks to the new SSW’er. The NW facing spots will see the windswell build up to about shoulder-head high at the top spots…but the periods will be in the 6-8 second range so expect pretty sloppy shape.

Winds right now look a bit ugly on Sunday…W-NW flow is forecast to push across the outer waters pretty hard through the morning…but it doesn’t quite reach the coast according to the COAMPS model…this looks like we might see some variable onshore flow SD and OC…possibly even some SE winds if things go well and we see the eddy restart. A lot is going to depend on if the eddy can get going enough to block out the NW flow…basically at this point I would plan on surfing on Saturday and then just wait and seeing on Sunday…but not committing a lot of time to surfing that day (it is mother’s day…so unless your mom rips you should probably spend it with her.)



That is about it for now…I would plan on some fun surf on Saturday and marginal conditions on Sunday…but an outside chance that there is a little morning window. Looking a little down the road in the forecast that swell for next week still looks pretty solid and weather should be pretty good when it gets here...something to keep in mind.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend...happy mother's day to all you surf mom's! (pssst ask for your special "mom alone time" on Saturday morning this year)

05/08/2010 Saturday
12:50AM LDT 1.7 L
06:14AM LDT 3.5 H
12:27PM LDT 1.0 L
06:52PM LDT 4.4 H

05/09/2010 Sunday
01:29AM LDT 1.2 L
07:08AM LDT 3.5 H
12:59PM LDT 1.2 L
07:15PM LDT 4.8 H

Thursday’s Wind – when will the madness end…oh yeah on Friday.

Thursday will not be a surf day…but there may be a little teenie-tiny window, for a couple of areas, in the morning if we get lucky...and by lucky I am talking somewhere in between a hot streak in vegas and being a lottery winner lucky or something like that.

Lots of windswell (and wind) still showing on Thursday…the peak of the windswell will actually be pushing through in the morning and it looks like most W facing beaches will see some decent size, but horrible shape. The top NW facing spots, particularly San Diego, will go bigger…but again the stupid wind does us no favors. Oh and there will be a touch of S-SW swell (190-220) that will get lost in the windswell/wind noise out there.



Most spots will continue to see sloppy, poor shape with surf running in the shoulder-head high+ range…and some bigger sets mixing in. The standout NW facing spots, again mostly in SD, will be several feet overhead and may have some bigger waves mixing in at times…this will be mostly stacked up windswell but it will be pretty good size.

Winds, overall look pretty bad for Thursday. W flow around 10-15 knots will be pushing through for the morning with some 20-25 knot gusts still possible in some areas. Now with that said…there are a couple of funky little things showing on the COAMPS and on the NWS graphical forecast…





It looks like the early morning may see some lighter winds around a couple of areas…namely North LA county/Santa Monica and North OC…it looks like the Malibu and PV headlands may push winds a little more northerly throw those areas which, thanks to their southerly orientation, might mean a brief period of sideshore or even slightly offshore winds through the morning. I definitely wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that to happen…but if you live in those areas it might be worth taking a longer look at the trees/flags indicators when you first wake up.

Keep in mind that even if things do clean up a bit in those areas the surf shape is still going to be lumpy and funky…with some freaking cold water temps thanks to upwelling and chilly air temps thanks to wind-chill.

Here are the tides…winds improve a lot by Friday morning…expect some better, cleaner, surf this weekend.

04/22/2010 Thursday
04:00AM LDT 4.3 H
11:27AM LDT -0.1 L
06:13PM LDT 3.9 H
11:50PM LDT 1.9 L

Slop for Wednesday – stormy

Wednesday looks stormy…strong onshore W winds, rain, possible thunderstorms, basically everything we don’t want as surfers. Unless you live right next to a super protected break it won’t be worth spending time/money/gas looking for waves on Wednesday.

Solid W-NW stormswell moves in fast on Wednesday…steamrolling the S-SW swells we have overlapping in the background.



Most spots will be seeing some poor shaped head high surf with a few of the really exposed NW facing breaks see sets going several feet overhead and bigger. Did I mention the shape was going to be poor most spots.

I think the National Weather Service sums up our weather for tomorrow nicely…



Santa Barbara/Ventura

.WED...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WESTERN PORTION. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 9 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 11 SECONDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WESTERN PORTION...BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 10 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 12 SECONDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

Los Angeles

.WED...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 10 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 11 SECONDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...BECOMING 10 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 10 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 12 SECONDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

Orange County/San Diego

.WED...WIND W 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. SWELL W 6 TO 9 FT AT 8 SECONDS. SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

.WED NIGHT...WIND W 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. SWELL W 8 TO 11 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.



As usual there may be a pocket or two of semi-protected surf out there…but honestly I don’t think I am going to spend much time looking tomorrow…just not in the mood for cold winds and rain for some reason. If you are on the hunt…your spot is going to need some serious protection from the W winds…and probably some exposure to the S-SW swells which is going to make it much smaller than areas directly exposed to the new stormsurf.

Here are the tides…

04/21/2010 Wednesday
02:24AM LDT 4.5 H
10:27AM LDT -0.1 L
05:36PM LDT 3.5 H
10:25PM LDT 2.5 L

Thursday’s funk – go away wind!

Thursday isn’t looking all that fun…there will be more swell in the water but it looks like more of this onshore wind, and probably some rain as well.

The WNW-NW swell (280-300), which is a mix of medium-period energy and local windswell slop), will peak on Thursday. A new S swell (180-200) moves in throughout the day…lots of long-period energy showing mostly on the buoys, but starting to sneak into the beaches by the end of the day. Again there may be a few pockets of semi-rideable (that being a relative term) conditions at the really protected spots in the morning, but don’t waste a lot of time/gas/money looking for clean glassy surf.



The WNW swell mix will be peaking on Thursday morning…but it looks like most of the energy is coming in around the 290-300 degree range…check out how it is hitting Socal on the CDIP analysis chart…



There is a little bit of refraction/bend to the WNW-NW energy (the longer-period swell) that you can see on the fringes of NW facing breaks…but the majority of the swell is both steeper in swell angle and shorter in swell period which is why the swell-shadow from Point Conception and the nearshore islands is so pronounced. This means that there will be some pretty changes in size as you move from an exposed beach to a lesser exposed area.

Sizewise on Thursday…look for the average WNW facing spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing breaks…in those red circles…will be shoulder-head high+ on the average sets with some bigger sets going overhead+ at times. Winds and the tide swing will hamper size and shape for almost everywhere...so if you are heading out hell or high water…try and keep that in mind when you pick your spot.

Weather is supposed to be pretty sloppy tomorrow too…check out the NOAA graphical forecast...



Winds are a little weird though…the weather models aren’t really sure how this storm is going to set up by Thursday morning…it may center itself around point conception…or it may be further out to sea. Both positions have different effects on the wind…a closer storm could allow the northern counties like Santa Barbara and Ventura to see lighter winds while LA on southward would see onshore W winds pretty much from the start of the day. If the storm is further off the coast then we may have more southerly winds across most of Socal, which leaves a few spots pretty protected. Check out the two wind models that I am looking at this afternoon…there is a pretty big difference between the two…





I have a gut feeling that we are going to get something in the middle of these two…sort of lighter/variable onshore flow for the morning, mostly W-SW around 10 knots with some of the northern areas seeing the W winds pick up fast by mid-morning. By the afternoon all spots should be plenty blown out thanks to 15-20 knot W winds with some 25 knot gusts. The rain should move out pretty fast too…

Basically I am expecting sloppy, junky conditions for most areas tomorrow…I know, I know there is always the one secret reef that has the inside section that works on the reverse negative tide and goes offshore whenever the wind is bad everwhere else…no matter what direction it is blowing (I think you have to talk to the singing bush, to find the invisible swordsman, so he can show you to the spot for the first time)...but for most of us that have to surf the normally wide open beaches, it is going to be pretty lumpy. As usual, whenever we have swell in the water, I recommend at least checking the wind in the morning (or whenever your “surf time” is during the day)…just to make sure that the storm hasn’t done something weird and opened a little window for you.

Here are the tides…

04/01/2010 Thu
05:41AM LDT -0.8 L
11:46AM LDT 3.7 H
05:06PM LDT 1.3 L
11:16PM LDT 5.6 H

Waves for Wednesday – Some Wind, Some Rain, and Some more WNW-NW swell

Wednesday is not looking like much of a surf day. Onshore winds are forecast to stay pretty steady tonight (out of the W) and hold through most of the day tomorrow. Rain and more wind is expected to move in Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of building local NW windswell and some increasing WNW-NW medium-period energy (280-300) both coming off this storm that will be moving through. There will be some small SW swell in the background but most spots won’t notice much of the energy.



Most spots will see some sort of increase surfwise tomorrow…but most of the new size will be local windswell/stormswell and it won’t be doing much to help shape. Sure there may be a few hidden pockets of protected breaks (particularly in the morning)…but those spots won’t be as exposed to the windswell if they are protected from the winds. Average WNW-NW breaks will likely hold around chest-head high while the best exposed NW facing breaks see some shoulder-overhead surf with some sets reaching a couple of feet overhead by the afternoon. (it looks like this swell will peak overnight into Thursday.)

Winds are forecast to be out of the W around 10-15 knots for the morning…with exposed areas hitting 20-25 knot gusts by the afternoon. Rain will push down from Santa Barbara in the morning and eventually hit most of Socal by the late afternoon…it should be a fairly cold airmass along with it…so snow levels could be dropping (so local mountains could get some new snow).



Looking at the charts and models isn’t giving me a lot of hope for tomorrow…but since there is swell in the water I always recommend at least looking at the cameras (or wind observations) to make sure that a surfable window hasn’t opened up at your usual spots. The westerly winds are able to junk up most spots but there may be a pocket or two at the really well protected breaks. Personally I will be getting up and checking stuff out early just to make sure that the storm hasn’t stalled out…but I will probably be going back to bed.

No county level forecasts today…there are only so many ways to write blown-out before it gets tedious.

Here are the tides…

03/31/2010 Wednesday
04:52AM LDT -0.9 L
10:54AM LDT 4.3 H
04:33PM LDT 0.8 L
10:40PM LDT 5.8 H

Surf for Tuesday – getting sloppy

Tuesday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but if winds cooperate, there may be a little surf window in the morning.

We are going to see a mix of building WNW-NW swell (280-300), some weak SW swell (200-220) and increasing local WNW windswell. A new cold front is forecast to move down the coast on Tuesday…not really affecting Socal till late (mostly after dark)…but eventually increasing onshore winds and adding some rain/drizzle into the mix.



Most spots with WNW exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets. The standout NW breaks in the better winter regions like Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have more consistent head high surf with some sets going overhead on the lower tides.

Wind/weather is where we are going to have the issues…most of the forecasts are calling for WNW winds that pick up here on Monday night to hold steady straight through Tuesday morning, which, if that is the case, will keep things pretty sloppy for most areas. A couple of the forecast models…the COAMPS and the NOAA/NWS graphical models to be precise…are showing a little bubble of light winds right along the coast line through the early morning. I don’t think we should hold our breath…but there might be a chance at some lighter winds, maybe even semi-clean conditions during the dawn patrol. Check out the COAMPS for the morning…see the gap that follows the coast…the COAMPS is calling for winds under 5 knots for the morning.



So not much of a surf day Tuesday…but a glimmer of hope early in the morning. Personally I am going to just keep an eye on the wind tonight and if it looks like it is lying down I will set my alarm a little earlier and see how things held together overnight. I wouldn’t burn a lot of gas getting to the beach, but if winds look light and you live close it might be worth a quick drive-by. If the winds increase later tonight you might just want to sleep in.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/30/2010 Tuesday
04:06AM LDT -0.7 L
10:05AM LDT 4.8 H
04:00PM LDT 0.3 L
10:05PM LDT 5.9 H

Monday’s Surf – Starting to pick back up

Monday will be pretty surfably…conditions start clean but we have to slog through a mid-morning high tide which is pretty sucktacular. Despite the building swell…onshore winds will honk things up by the afternoon.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of new WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy holding in the 290-300 swell angles). We will also see some background SW swell (200-220) and building NW windswell both of which will push up slightly throughout the day.



Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range for the morning…with some bigger chest high sets showing at the better WNW facing average breaks. The standouts, mostly Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some rare bigger sets showing at spots that like the higher tides. By the afternoon look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the average spots and a few head high+ sets hitting the standout breaks.

Winds look ok in the morning…mostly light and variable with a few small pockets of offshore still showing in a few places. Since the wind doesn’t get much of a chance to shift around the local air we might see some fog in a few places as well…it shouldn’t be much of a problem, just keep in mind that it might not be totally sunny at the beach. NW winds around 10-15 knots start to pick up a little before lunchtime and will eventually peak later in the afternoon.



Again…not super exciting surfwise…the building swell helps, but it doesn’t look like a ton of it will show before the onshore winds start to get to it. The high tide doesn’t do us any favors either. I think that the early morning will be the most fun, clean conditions, the tide pushing in, and some of the new swell starting to arrive too...if you stick to exposed spots that can handle the higher tide it could end up being a pretty playful start to the week. If you wait too long…or all of the sand at your beach is gone…then the tide and the building winds won’t make it all that appealing.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/29/2010 Monday
03:21AM LDT -0.4 L
09:17AM LDT 5.1 H
03:27PM LDT -0.2 L
09:32PM LDT 5.8 H