Waves for the Weekend – NW swell holds into Saturday and some funky chicken weather on Sunday

Saturday will be a rideable, maybe even fun, day and if the tide wasn’t a macho 6’+ high right in midmorning I would probably even say that it was going to be a surf day.

Sunday on the other hand is looking a bit sloppy thanks to building onshore winds and some scattered rain that is expected to push down the coast later Saturday night.



Swellwise on Saturday we can expect a mix of peaking NW swell (290-300), NW windswell, and a touch of background SW energy. Most spots will hold in the waist-chest high range on either side of the high tide bulge. The top NW facing breaks, the spots that can pull in the steeper swell angle (295-300) like those in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high and even head high+ sets sneaking in on better tides throughout the day.



Saturday’s winds will be ok in the morning…with light and variable flow for most areas and a few spots that see some offshore/side-offshore winds. Look for W-WSW winds 10-14 knots to start to fill in late in the afternoon.



Sunday the longer-period NW swell (290-300) will be dropping off while our local W-WNW windswell starts to increase, thanks to the junky onshore winds that are forecast to hold throughout the day. Most average spots will see waist-chest high surf with poor shape. The top NW facing breaks will still be around chest-shoulder high with some head high sets…but again most of the well exposed spots will also have wind problems and will likely see poor surf shape.



Winds and weather look funky…onshore W winds are expected to hold around 10-12 knots through the morning and then build in around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. Cloudy skies and periods of rain, particularly Sunday night, will continue to push through the region.

Basically Saturday looks like the day if you are going to surf this weekend…I won’t totally write off Sunday yet, just because these little fronts can be notoriously fickle when it comes to intensity and arrival times. Best case scenario is that the storm comes in weaker and slower than the current forecast is calling for…and lets us have a little surf window on Sunday morning. Keep an eye on conditions and at least plan on giving the cameras a check early Sunday just to make sure you aren’t missing anything.

Here are the tides…have a good one!

12/05/2009 Saturday
04:12AM LST 2.4 L
10:18AM LST 6.1 H
05:57PM LST -0.9 L

12/06/2009 Sunday
12:42AM LST 3.8 H
05:20AM LST 2.5 L
11:15AM LST 5.6 H
06:50PM LST -0.5 L

Wednesday’s Surf – New Storm Moving in

Wednesday looks like it will continue the trend of crappy surf but there may be a small window for some waves if you don’t mind braving the subpar water quality.

Like the title of the forecast says, we have a new storm starting to move in. Unfortunately it isn’t the kind of storm we are looking for...it is a poorly positioned system moving in from the North...just enough that it is outside of our swell window (NorCal is getting some waves) but close enough to the coast that it is going to send in some more sloppy weather when it arrives. Check it out on the GOES Satellite.



You can see all the mess brewing up off the coast...and that it is hanging right in the blind spot that we get from Point Conception. You might even want to check out the animated version of this image...it gives you a better perspective on how this system is behaving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-vis.html

Eventually this system is going to break eastward and move over SoCal brining more wind and rain. Based on this afternoon’s forecasts it looks like the leading edge of the front will arrive tomorrow...more likely in the afternoon but with building S-SE winds for most of Wednesday.

It is also going to set up some building W-NW windswell (and a smaller amount of southerly windswell)...the rub of it all is going to be if we will see any of the swell before the winds get too bad. Right now, with the luck that we have been having, I am inclined to stay conservative and say that the trend of “screwing us” will continue...but with a system this dynamic it is worth keeping a weather eye on it and seeing if we might be able to get a couple of bigger waves before the winds take it apart.

So for Wednesday we can expect a mix of steady but smaller WNW windswell for the morning. Most spots will hold in the waist-high range while the top standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego seeing some bigger chest-shoulder high faces. This swell will build up throughout the day as the new storm approaches...likely building into the chest-shoulder high range for the average exposed spots and some head high sets for the standouts (it looks biggest by the end of the day and we could have some larger “victory at sea” conditions as the winds peak overnight).

Weatherwise the forecasts are calling for increasing S-SE winds through the morning...starting off around 10-knots but building steadily through the day...eventually topping out in the 20-25+ knot range by the afternoon. Rain will come along with it as well.

Ideally what we want is the wind to stay out of the SE as long as it can...if it holds that direction there are going to be a few spots throughout the county that can actually hold together enough to get us waves. This is sort of a long-shot so don’t plan your day around it but if you are in some of the better positioned Ventura areas, The LA South Bay, or Southern San Diego, I would probably keep an eye on the surf...you might get a window of increasing size with still surfable conditions. Really the only reason that I am even mentioning this is in desperation for some waves...hopefully conditions will pull/hold together enough that a few of us can get some waves before it all goes to poop again.

This all depends on the front moving at its forecasted speed...but these things rarely do...so if you wake up and it still seems relatively windless in your area then we might have a shot at some waves. If it is already raining and blowing onshore then spend some time writing your own letter to Santa and then go back to bed.

Good Luck!

If I get a chance I will send out another update tomorrow...but if I don’t I want to make sure to wish you all a happy holidays and sincerely hope that you have a good couple of days off (even if the surf sucks).

Cheers!

Adam & the Wright Family