Tuesday’s Surf – S-SW swell on the rise…I think I see the eddy lurking in the bushes

Tuesday will definitely see an increase in surf…but stronger winds in the outer waters will start to creep up, possibly spinning up our coastal eddy enough to add some texture/funkiness to our exposed spots.

Our new S-SW swell (190-215) has been slowly increasing on the buoys throughout the day here on Monday and probably even managed to put a few bigger sets into the select spots before sunset. The stronger part of the swell is starting to arrive right now…check out the Lajollasurf.org buoy list…there are a lot of 18-20 second stuff showing all of a sudden.



You can check out the live version of this list here….

http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html

On Tuesday we can expect the S-SW swell (190-215) to start to peak…at this point it looks like the biggest part of the swell will arrive late Tuesday afternoon/evening and then peak overnight into early Wednesday morning. This swell will be mixing with some smaller leftover S-SSW swells, and some fluky WNW-NW windswell. Look for the bigger S-SW swell to fill in through the morning…with the biggest surf arriving later in the day.



Sizewise…the average S-SW facing spots…and a few of the better S exposed combo spots will have some chest-head surf with a few inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. The standout SSW-SW facing spots and the excellent combo spots, mostly in South OC, a few parts of North OC, as well as a few other scattered breaks with some good exposure, will have surf running consistently shoulder-head high+ with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead. Try and keep in mind that the tides and occasional wind-funkiness will hamper the shape and consistency...the biggest and the best waves will show on the tide push and through the periods with the cleanest conditions.

Winds are look sort of marginal…there is a bit of an eddy, but neither the NWS or the COAMPS wind models are calling for it to be very strong during the morning. If things cool off enough tonight, or we get the high-pressure to move in a little early…then we will have a chance for some lighter winds through the morning…but as it is I would expect at least a little onshore wind and texture. Current forecast models are calling for light/variable to light/onshore flow for breaks in Santa Barbara down through Los Angeles. The same models are showing a bit more of light/variable/southerly flow early…with some increasing eddy texture building in by mid-morning. Most spots will have W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.







It sure would have been nice to have the sunny skies and light winds to hold long enough for this swell to arrive, but Mother Nature has a pretty sick sense of humor sometimes (like when good sized S swells arrive). With the swell having some size…and the windswell not really having enough pep to break it up…I think that the points and reefs are going to be the best call on Tuesday, most of the beach breaks are going to be pretty lined up as well as see a lovely current to fight against. (or float along with…which is usually how well I do against them). Also, I think we are going to see a little inconsistency on the big sets earlier in the day…but things should fill in as the swell continues to fill in. Expect some good size from this swell to hold overnight into Wednesday.

Here are the tides…happy hunting, let me know if you get any good ones.

07/20/2010 Tuesday
12:36AM LDT 0.3 L
07:00AM LDT 3.1 H
11:09AM LDT 2.4 L
05:48PM LDT 5.6 H

Monday’s Surf – Monday Morning quickie

Monday is looking like surf day…but there may be some more fog issues in the morning (and a little fog texture to go along with it) which may keep it from being a “very good” surf day.

In the water we have a mix of holding WNW-NW swell (285-300) and some building SW swell (200-220). The swell models really like this SW swell for some reason but I am still a little leery of both the size and consistency since the energy heading towards Socal is going right through the the SPAC islands and that always does some funky chicken with the energy, usually chewing out some of the size and the consistent.



That being said…some initial energy from this new SW’er is actually showing on the buoys this evening…O-side has about ½ a foot of energy around 20-seconds right now…and the swell is supposed to get bigger as it fills in more over the next couple of days. Check out the buoy from Sunday night.



Sizewise…things look pretty fun…the average spot will see lots of surf in the waist-chest high range with a few shoulder high sets sneaking into the well exposed combo breaks. The standout SW/WNW-NW facing spots will see more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high (and probably bigger) sets sneaking in when the two swells manage to combo up properly.

Winds look ok…only ok…in the morning. There is still a little instability holding in the upper level of the atmosphere…which tweaking out stuff down on the surface. For the most part it looks like light and variable winds on tap for most areas…with a few pockets of some light offshore texture around LA and Ventura…and then some similar onshore pockets around Orange County and parts of San Diego (which is German for “whale’s vagina”…well at least that is what Ron Burgundy told me! )



Winds shift onshore around midmorning and then continue to increase…going variable onshore around 10-15 knots for most exposed areas.



I think it is going to end up being a bit of a funky day on Monday…mostly because the wind/weather/swell aren’t lined up all that well. For example we might see plenty of S-SW/WNW-NW swell at a break but most of the surf will be buried by the fog and roughed up buy the winds that always see to go along with it. That being said…sometimes you can pony up for a foggy session and find some playful peaks hiding out in the mist. At this point I think that getting on it early will be the best call…the winds start to push in pretty early during midmorning and it looks like they it could be a bit breezy by the afternoon. I would probably stick with the S-SW facing points/reefs…but the combo spots, particularly the beach breaks with good exposure and groomed sandbars…could end up being pretty fun too.

Here are the tides…have a good one…looks like more offshore winds and bigger swell on tap by the middle of the week…so if you don’t get some of this one…there will be some more chances later.

03/22/2010 Monday
01:16AM LDT 4.7 H
09:48AM LDT 0.4 L

Random Swell Update: New swell mix showing this morning

Some of the S facing spots are seeing some playful waves this morning...the mix of S-SW swell (180-200) and some tropical SSW swell (180-190) from TS Enrique is blending together pretty well. It was also nice of Mother Nature to chill out the winds this morning.

Check out the CDIP and the S-facing buoys...




Anyway looks like a lot of waist-chest peaks at the s-facing spots now that the tide is filling in. A few of the best S facing spots, mostly through Orange County, are already seeing some inconsistent shoulder high sets. I don’t think it is going to get a ton bigger...but the Southern Hemi swell will add some more energy as we move throughout the day.

If you get a chance you might to get out and ride a few before the tide gets too high.