This got delivered to the wrong ocean...

I sure wish this was in the South Pacific right now...somewhere between Tahiti and Chile.

Or I wish that I was going to be on a boat somewhere off the coast of indo in about 5 days...

Random Swell Update – Wet-n-wild work week

The weather/wind and swell models are all showing some pretty nasty conditions next week…and if anything they are almost looking stronger and more intense than the have in previous forecast runs.

Check out this lovely little paragraph from the National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion….

WITH MORE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE OTHER THREATS THAT WE EXPECT TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...COASTAL AREAS MAY EXPECT TO SEE THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE HIGHEST SURF CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN IN YEARS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK.

They must have been looking at this model image from the CDIP (90-hours out…so roughly Wednesday morning before sunrise)...no wonder they are getting all hypey...I mean usually the NWS sucks the hype (and the fun) right out of things.



One big thing to keep in mind with the NWS statement, and even the CDIP image, is that they are also including the nasty short-period chop that will be slamming through the same time as the longer-period energy. That chop will be good for several feet of size in the outer-waters but won’t translate that well into actual breaking wave heights, which you can sort of see on the map as the swell loses a lot of size as the energy moves through the nearshore islands. Don't get me wrong it will still be pretty big...just quite a bit smaller than what gets thrown around in the outer-waters.

At the same time it is really a moot point since you can't really hide from the SSW-SW-W gale force winds (don’t forget the waterspouts!) that are going to hammer us the same time as the swell. I think the term “Victory at Sea” will probably just about cover the conditions Socal can expect from this bad boy.

Random Storm Tracking – Doctor I think the NPAC patient has a pulse!

So I have been watching some increasing activity in the North Pacific for the last couple of days…we had a little low spin up under the Aleutians late last week and push in some NW swell for a few spots over the weekend.

Well looks like another storm has brewed up…

Now before you get all excited and start spinning in circles while you are thinking about driving to all of the winter spots within the range of your new hybrid (you hippy). I need to point out that this isn’t a very intense storm. About the only reason I am mentioning it is that the rest of the Pacific Ocean seems to have fallen asleep, and the low is OK considering the time of year.

That being said it does look like it could kick out a mini WNW swell for us later this week.

Here is the current QuikSCAT (that one was for you…Scott you sick puppy. I think the Iraqi sun has gotten to you) pic of the storm as it pulls together on the edge of the Gulf of Alaska.



Here is the Visible NOAA satellite image. You can see the fairly tight rotation in the low…it is very well developed for a summertime NPAC storm.




From a swell perspective I am expecting some new WNW swell (290-300) to move in late on Wednesday (basically just after sundown in Santa Barbara and Ventura)…but show best on Thursday the 21st.

At this point I am looking for surf in the knee-waist high range at the average WNW facing areas with some bigger chest-chest high+ sets at the standout NW facing areas, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego.

It isn’t going to be much of swell, it will feel a lot like a punchy windswell, but considering that we haven’t had much of anything from this region since the winter season closed up shop I guess it is ok to look forward to.

Anyway that is about all I go at this point…check back tomorrow and I will dial it in a bit more.