Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/08/2010

Hey gang…I took a little vacation with the family over the last week, which was the reason for the lack of forecasts. (Actually I made the mistake of trying to us my laptop as both a way to work and a way to entertain the kids…amazingly it is really hard to forecast while the Clone Wars cartoons are blasting away). Anyway…I am back in action and the forecasting should settle back into its normal pattern.

Forecast Overview

New S swell is moving in this afternoon and will peak Friday and Saturday, just as the weather cools off and we get a bit of a coastal eddy forming up. Sunday will start off with mostly leftovers but a stronger cold front is forecast to arrive through the afternoon/nighttime and bring rain, wind, and possibly some W swell for Monday. Cleaner conditions and more southern hemi swells are starting to stack up out the back.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (S-SW swell strengthens…with a touch of eddy)
There will be some semi-combo fun on Friday…we will see a mix of S-SW swell (180-210) from a couple of different swells and we will also have some steeper angled NW windswell (290-300) that will continue to push in through the background. There aren’t that many beaches that can pull in both S and NW swells, which is why I am only calling it a “semi-combo”, but there are a few…so look for the biggest waves at those really exposed spots. Average breaks will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout S facing spots and the excellent combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will see surf in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: A coastal eddy is forecast to form on Friday…brining some light onshore flow for SB down through North LA and some light/variable winds in the South Bay down through San Diego. Most areas will have winds below 10-knots but there is a chance at some onshore texture in the most open areas. Look for W-WSW winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



Saturday – (S-SW swell peaks while the weather cools)
The mix of S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to peak while the random blips of NW energy wind down. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout S facing breaks continue to see shoulder-head high surf with some bigger sets mixing in at times. Expect the sets to be on the inconsistent side…particularly on the tide drop. Winds/Weather: The weather goes into a weird transition period on Saturday. There is a storm forecast to develop off the coast, but it isn’t close enough to really affect our region (yet). Current wind forecasts are showing another day of eddy circulation, but I think that it is a bit early to tell how intense it will be. Expect variable onshore texture, mostly out of the S-SE, around 5-8 knots…winds shift more SW-WSW around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Sunday – (Stupid Storm )
Looks like we are going to get another round of spring storminess on Sunday…which is going to jack up the weather, especially by the afternoon. Swellwise we are going to see the S-SW swell holding/slowly fading as we move throughout the day…there will also be a mix of building S-SW-W wind/stormswell from this front as it approaches…most of that slop won’t be surfable but it will be out there mixing it up. Most S facing spots will continue to see waist-chest high surf while the standout spots see chest-head high surf. Winds/Weather:



Monday – (More stupid Storm and building swell)
The storm is forecast to peak Sunday night into Monday morning…so it looks like S-SW winds and rain will be on tap for Monday morning, which is a laaaaaame way to start a work week. Swellwise our surf will be on the way up…the W swell (260-290) that is coming along with this storm will arrive and mix with a still healthy tail end of the S-SSW swell (180-200). Most spots will be in the chest-head high range, while the top W facing spots and the excellent combo spots (mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, parts of OC, and Southern SD), will have overhead+ sets. Shape looks nasty…but maybe the weather won’t be as bad as it looks today. Winds/Weather: The front is supposed to be passing over Socal Monday morning so W winds around 10-15 knots will be on tap in the areas that the front has passed over. The spots still in the path of the front will see S winds (and rain) around 10-15 knots. All areas should see W winds around 15-20 knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still a little life left in the NPAC…though I am finding it harder to trust the long-range portion of the forecasts as we move further away from the winter. I am however seeing some short-range action…it looks like we have a close proximity storm forecast to form up a few hundred miles off of the California coast in the next 2-3 days.



As it develops it is supposed to set up some W-NW storm swell at the same time…



I am not sure how much stock I am willing to put into the W-NW swell from this system but for the time being the swell models like it…so I will keep some head high/overhead sizes at the top spots in the forecast, but a lot is going to depend on how this storm actually forms.

Further out the GFS weather model is calling for another similar storm (similar to the one forecast to form this weekend) forming later next week, around Friday (April 16). If this lives up to forecasts we could see some more weather, and possibly more W-NW swell hitting around April 18-20.

South Pacific
Looks like we are going to see a long string of overlapping S-SW swells moving out of the South Pacific for at least the next week…possibly holding onto some sort of energy till almost the end of the month.



First up is a decent sized SSW-SW swell (190-215) that started to arrive on Thursday with some long-period energy. This swell will turn more S-SSW’erly and peak Friday afternoon, holding into Saturday, and then backing down slowly Sunday/Monday. As this one peaks it looks good for chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average SSW facing breaks and head high+ sets at the standout SW facing breaks.



Further out there are a bunch more storms that roll through the SPAC…if you looked just at the flat-map version of the swell model you would start to think they weren’t all that good looking…but if you look at the model in a “globe” projection, which is the most realistic view…



…you can see that there is a whole section of the storm track that lines up well with Socal…some of it is shadowed by the SPAC islands but there is enough wind headed our direction that we can expect some playful swell.

At this point it looks like another S-SSW swell (180-200) moves in with chest-shoulder high+ surf on April 13-14 (mostly the 14th). Then another shot of SSW-SW swell (200-220) would start filling in on the 15-16th…likely peaking late on the 16th and into the 17th. Even further out it looks like we could see more SSW swell heading our way for the 19th…but this last one still has a few days before developing.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 12th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Slop for Monday – Looking stormy

Monday is not looking like a surf day for most spots.

Our WNW-NW swell (285-300) will be building on Monday but stormy conditions are forecast to move in early on Monday morning and keep things sloppy throughout the day.

The WNW energy is actually going to be a mix of all sorts of stuff…leftover energy from the weekend, some local short-period windswell, and some long-period energy from the first part of that larger storm system building in the North Pacific. The long-period stuff (and the leftovers) will be showing in the morning, particularly at spots up in the SB and Ventura areas, but the shorter-period storm/windswell will be building in through the day…check out the difference in the swell forecasts between the am and the pm. Oh and there is a little SW pulse out in the water too.





Surfwise we can expect the average exposed spots to be around waist-chest high…more consistent in areas that normally like winter energy and less consistent and smaller in the lesser exposed regions. Top NW facing breaks will be around chest-shoulder high with some head high sets on the lower tides. Looks like all spots will be bigger as the windswell fills in through the afternoon.

Really I am not sure why I am going into so much detail on this forecast…the weather looks like poop on Monday. We have a pretty chilly cold front moving down from the north that is going to carve right into a bunch of warm/moisture that is holding over Socal…no sh*t, I believe that the NWS is describing this air-mass as “juicy”…not sure I have ever heard that one before. Anyway the mix of the cold front and the “juicy” air-mass is supposed to be pretty nasty…something like 1-2 inches of rain along the coast and some areas potentially seeing nearly 4 inches of rain. Snow-levels are supposed to drop to about 2000 feet too which is crazy.

Ok so for the morning it looks like S-SE to S-SW winds blowing through most of Socal…more SE’erly up by Santa Barbara and more SW’erly down by San Diego. Winds will be around 10-15 knots for the morning and then building 15-25 knots, with 30-35 knot gusts by the afternoon. Gale warnings and in effect for the offshore areas.



Something to keep in mind…even though the forecast has all this nastiness line up for tomorrow it really depends on how fast the cold front moves in. If it stalls or shifts its track, the timing could change and we might see some a small window of conditions. As I usually do when we have swell in the water, I think that it will be worth at least a cam check in the morning...hopefully things will hold together just long enough that we can pick off a few.

Here are the tides…

12/07/2009 Monday
01:41AM LST 4.0 H
06:47AM LST 2.5 L
12:22PM LST 4.8 H
07:44PM LST 0.0 L

Friday’s wind tunnel – yeah it is supposed to suck

So a new storm is approaching on Friday...so it doesn’t look like a surf day...but there may be a small window for a few areas through the morning but it is a pretty slim chance.

We are going to have a mix of increasing local WNW-NW windswell, WNW long-period swell, and SW swell...all of which will add some size to our surf as they flesh out a bit more tomorrow.

Sizewise we can expect consistent chest high+ surf for the average exposed areas. Standout NW facing spots see some shoulder-head high surf...but those will be mostly in San Diego.

The winds will start off S-SE in the morning. The COAMPS which called the winds better than the other models Thursday morning is showing a pretty developed front pushing through during the dawn patrol. Conditions are going to be dependent of when the front moves through…if it stalls and hangs off the coast in the AM then winds will be more SE, and there will be a few rideable breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, Central OC and Central SD. If the front jumps on us then it will be blown out.



The afternoon looks pretty sloppy…SW-W winds 15-20 knots with 25 knot gusts, periods of rain, and they are even calling for waterspouts, which sounds a little extreme…but whatever.

Basically I would just plan on taking it slow in the morning. Another cam check morning…maybe a run to the beach if you are close to a S wind protected spot…the usual morning check. I wouldn’t plan on driving very far but if the weather cooperates we might see some rideable spots.

Conditions look better for Monday/Tuesday…and we have a new S swell coming through. Check out the update I sent earlier for more details on that.

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2009/04/swell-alert-s-swell-for-early-next-week.html

Waves for the Weekend - Sloppy with an extra side of funky

It doesn’t look like much of a surf weekend...the surf stays on the small side with just sort of substandard swells, the weather gets sort of nasty as rain and S winds move in, and if that wasn't bad enough we have a super high tide that peaks in the mornings and just buries us.

Surfwise we are going to have a mix of SSW energy and some local WNW windswell on Saturday. The average exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-high+ range while the better combo spots stay right around chest high with some rare chest high+ sets. Shape will be a bit soft since all of these swells have fairly short periods (around 12-14 seconds on the SSW'er and around 6-8 on WNW energy)...add in that the high tide swamps it...and it looks like mostly close to shore mushburgers or shorebreak.

Sunday the WNW energy builds as more windswell starts to arrive...it will be pretty steep with most of the energy coming in around 290-300+ and the winds setting it up will come along with it...so shape isn't going to be that great. The top exposed spots will build into the chest-shoulder high+ range by the afternoon...maybe even a few bigger waves at the really good windswell spots.

Weather is what really works us over. S-SW winds around 10-15 knots and periods of rain start to arrive on Saturday (probably strongest by the afternoon). Sunday will see the same winds in the morning and then more W-erly flow by the afternoon...probably more rain as well. Looks like another cold front with more consistent rain pushes through the area on Monday. (lame).



Anyway I don't think it will be worth spending much time trying to hunt down the surf this weekend...the combo of the tide, weather, and lack of surf is going to be pretty frustrating. There may be a couple of small surf windows out there if you need to get in the water for some reason...so if you "have" to surf I would try and pick a spot with the right mix of protection from the winds, lack of tide sensitivity, but with still enough exposure to pull in a few waves...(yeah like you are going to find a lot spots like this). Really I think your best bet is to keep an eye on the local winds, if they aren't too bad give the cams a quick check and see if you can spot a fun peak or two.

Have a good one...

PS...if I don't make it back on Monday it is because I had too much fun at the Christmas party and ended up borrowing (I believe the technical term is "piracy") someone's Duffy Boat and terrorized Newport Harbor. Man I love holiday parties!



Here are the tides

Saturday
02:18AM LST 2.0 L
08:31AM LST 7.0 H
04:05PM LST -1.7 L
10:35PM LST 3.8 H

Sunday
03:10AM LST 2.1 L
09:19AM LST 6.8 H
04:54PM LST -1.5 L
11:27PM LST 3.8 H

Wednesday’s waves – Morning Tide Burger and afternoon Showers

Wednesday is not looking like much of a surf day…it will be on the chilly side and even though we will have some swell in the water we will also have issues with the tide and the weather.

Swellwise we will have a building SW swell (195-210) and increasing W-WSW windswell.

In the morning we will have mostly knee-high surf with a few bigger sets at the good high-tide, S-facing, combo spots (what a freaking mouthful). Basically the standout spots in San Diego, Orange County, a few extra exposed areas of the South Bay and Southern Ventura will be your best call. Winds should be light and variable with some onshore texture. The tide will be pretty high so expect shape to be soft with some extra burger at the more sensitive spots.

(the morning high tide is going to be an issue till Sunday…so you may want to plan around it.)

In the afternoon our cold front is expected to move over the area bringing more S-SW winds (10-15 knots) and scattered showers. The SW swell and WSW swell will be increasing but most spots will be pretty hacked up. You might try to check a couple of the areas that like Southerly winds…but don’t expect too much.

That is about it for tomorrow…it looks like more swell and cleaner conditions later this week. Keep your fingers crossed that we don’t get enough rain to jack up the water quality.

Friday’s Surf – More swell, and it looks like more wind

Friday looks like it may have a few waves, but it will be rainy, supposedly windy, and we will still be trying to muscle through a high tide in the morning. Overall I don’t think it will be a very good surf day.

In the water we will have a mix of WNW swell (285-300), NW windswell, and a touch of S-SW windswell too. Most spots will be around waist-shoulder high once the tide drops. Standout breaks, mostly in San Diego and Ventura, will be in the shoulder-head high+ range.

Conditions are not looking great though. It is supposed to start raining this evening/night and it is expected to continue through into tomorrow. Winds are expected to be out of the SW around 10-15 knots through most of the day.

Since there will be some waves/swell in the water it probably isn’t worth totally writing the day off. The wind direction isn’t particularly good but it could come in a touch more S or even SE…looking at the charts the set-up that is causing the winds tomorrow is a bit unstable…so there is a chance that we could get a more favorable wind, particular in the morning.

I think your best bet is to get up and check the cams in the morning. The high tide hits around 10am…so there may be a window of surf at breaks that are protected from the Southerly winds. (Areas like Southern Ventura, The South Bay, La Jolla, Dana Point/Laguna in OC will be your best bets.) Get it early though...it looks a lot winder during the afternoon.