Waves for the Weekend – Sloppy Saturday, then cleaner Sunday with some large stormy W swell

Saturday does not look like surf day. Sunday will be much bigger as new W swell arrives but wind/conditions may not clean up all that much.

So Saturday will start with mosty leftovers, buried by the high tide, early in the morning…it will also have plenty of increasing S-SW winds and increasing periods of rain. By the afternoon a large shot of W-NW swell (275-300) starts to arrive, this will build overnight and eventually peak on Sunday. The stormy S-SW winds will turn NW’erly after midnight on Saturday and hold that NW’erly flow through most of Sunday.



Saturday will be pretty small in the morning…mostly knee-waist high at the average spots and some chest high+ sets at the standout WNW-NW spots. Shape will be slow and soft thanks to the high tide. Add in the S-SW winds (10-15+ knots) and it sounds like a good reason to stay in bed. There may be a couple of protected spots through the morning but the tide and lack of swell won’t really let much surf sneak into those areas.



Sunday a much, much bigger W-NW swell (275-300) arrives and peaks throughout the day. At this point the swell looks pretty hefty, particularly at the spots that have direct exposure to the WNW-NW.



Look for surf in the easy shoulder-overhead range for most W facing breaks. The better WNW facing spots will be running consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…and possibly bigger at times. The top NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf in the overhead to well overhead range and sets hitting near the double-overhead range. The swell actually gets a direct shot at Southern San Diego…so there is a shot at some bigger surf filtering into that region.

Winds look a bit suspect, but overall not as bad as Saturday…right now the models aren’t really matching up that well…check em out…



You can see that the COAMPS model is pretty heavy on the winds for the morning…showing steady onshore W-WNW winds, 10-20 knots, blowing through most areas pretty much from sunrise on.



The NWS graphical forecast is showing NW winds, strongest up around Ventura and Santa Barbara, but lighter as you move down through LA, OC, and San Diego.

Personally I don’t really trust either of the models all that much…a lot is going to depend on how fast the front moves through the area Saturday afternoon/night…if it can speed through we will see the ridge build in faster that would help clean up conditions. Based on what I am seeing I think that we plan on some light/moderate WNW-NW winds for the morning, maybe not enough to blow it out…but enough to get some bump texture on things. If you have to surf (in the poo water) then I would plan on sticking to spots that can handle the NW winds…you might even want to check some of the lesser exposed areas, there will be enough W in this swell to wrap energy into the more S-SW facing breaks, it won’t be as big as the W facing spots but they might dodge the wind a bit better.

When you get down to it this is another one of those weekends where, since we have a ton of swell in the water, that it may pay off to keep your “weather eye” on conditions…hopefully the dynamic nature of the storm will crack open a few surf windows as it passes on through. As usual if you surf send me a report and let me know how it is.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/27/2010 Saturday
01:38AM LST 0.9 L
07:37AM LST 6.1 H
02:29PM LST -1.2 L
08:37PM LST 4.8 H

02/28/2010 Sunday
02:26AM LST 0.4 L
08:23AM LST 6.0 H
03:03PM LST -1.1 L
09:10PM LST 5.2 H

Waves for the Weekend – Funky Chicken and more rain

At first glance this doesn’t look like a surf weekend…but there may be a little wriggle-room (surf-room) Saturday morning.

Overall this weekend looks pretty sloppy…sure there will be some new stormy W swell but the winds are forecast to stay onshore out of the west pretty much the whole weekend and bring another inch+ of rain to the coastal areas. The swell, really a WSW-W-WNW swell mix (260-300), will be arriving fast Friday evening and will eventually peak Saturday afternoon and on into Sunday.

Here are the swell forecasts for both days…

Saturday



Sunday



Sizewise, once the swell starts to peak on Saturday afternoon, I am expecting surf in the shoulder-head high range for most of the average W facing breaks. The standout spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a few feet overhead at times. These waves will hold overnight into Sunday…and then fade slowly as we move into Monday.

Weather in general will be pretty junky this weekend…but check out the wind/weather models for Saturday morning…



The COAMPS is calling for steady, sort of nasty looking, W winds for the morning…



But the NWS/NOAA models are showing some lighter morning winds and even a bit of circulation putting S-SE winds going semi-offshore in a few areas.

Personally I don’t believe either model all that much…they both have been a little aggressive in estimating how fast a storm will push through our area during our last few systems. Generally the storms have come in later and slower moving than these models have predicted…I have a feeling that actual conditions are going to be somewhere in the middle of those two. That being said I think that Saturday morning will be our best chance for surf…just don’t commit a lot of time to trying to get to the beach. I would give the cams a check in the morning…maybe check out the live winds if you can…and make sure that, even if the wind is light, that there isn’t a bunch of funk still on the water.

The models both agree that Sunday will be windier…W winds around 10-15 knots with gusts still topping out around 20 knots in some areas.



So the weekend doesn’t look all that good…the weather is going to do a lot to screw up conditions/surf-shape. Add in the “even more rain” factor and junky sloppy surf, with poor water quality, just doesn’t sound that inviting. I would still try and keep an eye on Saturday morning…but don’t hold your breath.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/20/2010 Saturday
12:02AM LST 4.5 H
07:37AM LST 1.2 L
01:19PM LST 2.4 H
05:32PM LST 1.9 L

02/21/2010 Sunday
12:56AM LST 4.5 H
09:25AM LST 0.9 L

Surf for Friday – Small with building S winds

Friday doesn’t look like much of a surf day.

The morning looks pretty small…just some leftover WNW-NW energy and touch of smaller SW energy (200-220) that holds in the background. There will be some new WSW-NW energy, mostly stormy/windswell, that begins arriving in Santa Barbara and Ventura late in the afternoon but it won’t show to much new surf before sundown.



Look for most spots to see surf in the knee high range with some waist high sets during the tide push. The better WNW/SW combo spots will be a touch bigger…more knee-waist high with some inconsistent chest high sections. It will be the most consistent through the morning dawn patrol but the high tide will start to kill it pretty fast.

Look for S-winds around 5-8 knots spinning up in the morning…sort of S-SW around Santa Barbara and Ventura and more S-SE’erly in LA, OC, and SD. These winds will increase and turn more SW’erly for all areas throughout the day…hitting 10-20 knots by the afternoon/evening. Look for rain showers to move in throughout the day…getting strongest overnight into Saturday.



There isn’t really enough swell for it to be very rideable tomorrow…add in the S wind texture and the building tide and it looks like the wheels will start to come off by midmorning/midday. If you need to surf I would bust out the log and try and find a spot during the dawn patrol that has some protection from the South winds…personally I am going to be surfing my pillow for a little extra shuteye.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county…you aren’t going to learn anything new but it sure makes me feel good to see traffic on those pages.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/19/2010 Friday
06:18AM LST 1.2 L
11:50AM LST 2.9 H
05:16PM LST 1.5 L

Rain and Wind for the Weekend – Looking Nasty

This won’t be much of a surf weekend…the weather will be pretty lame and onshore winds are going to kill it on Sunday.

Hey I wanted to say thanks to you guys for filling out the survey…I am getting a lot of good responses…I will probably close it down on Sunday (so I can get the after action stuff done early next week)…If you haven’t responded yet, here is the link

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/BGTYQRC

Ok back to the surf….In the water on Saturday we are going to have slowly fading WNW energy, mostly leftovers from earlier in the week but with a mix of other medium period energy from fronts following that bigger one…in general it will be smaller though. We will also have a mix of building S-SW windswell moving in with the front.



On Saturday look for wave heights to hold around waist-chest high+ at the average WNW facing breaks. Top spots will be in the chest-head high range with a few inconsistent bigger sets lurking around out there.

Conditions look pretty lame…S-SW winds around 10-15 knots are expected to hold throughout the day and then strengthen up to about 15-20 knots by the afternoon. Rain, clouds, and other nastiness will push through all day.

One thing worth noting is that the S winds don’t totally blow out every spot…so there may be a little surf-wiggle-room during the dawn patrol. If you don’t mind the rain, you might want to give the S protected spots a look, particularly if they like the windswell combo stuff we have in the water for Saturday morning.



On Sunday the windswell builds back up, but so do the onshore winds, so it doesn’t look very surfable.



Wave heights will start off similar to Saturday but I expect chundery mess of WNW slop moving in later in the day as the W-NW winds top out around 20 knots.

Basically at this point…with the onshore W winds in the forecast…I think Sunday will be a write-off.



So not super exciting this weekend…I would just keep a weather eye on the protected spots on Saturday, but other than that we can expect more rain and onshore wind. Stay dry and have a good one.

Here are the tides…

12/12/2009 Saturday
05:41AM LST 5.9 H
01:04PM LST -0.3 L
07:15PM LST 3.5 H

12/13/2009 Sunday
12:00AM LST 2.0 L
06:19AM LST 6.0 H
01:47PM LST -0.7 L
08:07PM LST 3.6 H

Wednesday’s Waves – Getting funky now

So I was just going over the WX charts for tomorrow and even though the storm is moving over Southern California it does look like we might have a couple of surf pockets. I think it will be a far cry from a surf day but if you have the day off, don’t mind rain or potentially poop filled water, then you might get a chance to snag a couple of waves.

We are going to have a mix of medium-short period W-WNW storm swell, some slightly longer-period NW energy, and some building S swell (180-190). On a side note I got out and caught a couple of waves at the local beach break (on Tuesday afternoon) and the S swell was doing most of the work…the tide was low, and there was a little west crossing it up, but a few of the sets were legit shoulder high+ on the face. There was no real point to that story except to say that the S swell was doing ok at sending in some inconsistent sets. Hopefully it will just get bigger as it combos up with the W energy.



On Wednesday the average spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range. The standout S facing breaks, standout WNW facing spots, and the good combo breaks will be in the shoulder-head high range on sets. Shape will be funky for most areas but winds should be swirling out of the S-SE so there will be some spots that will have semi-rideable waves.

These spots should not be hard to find…just grab a map and a pencil. Align the pencil so that the tip is pointing to the NW…that is the direction the wind is going to be blowing. Hold the pencil over the coastline and if the pencil is perpendicular to a beach then there is a good chance it will be clean(er) than other spots. That is my poor man’s MacGyver forecast tip of the day.

Winds tomorrow are going to be the funky part…basically they are going to be all over the place as the storm front moves over the area and starts to move inland. If the front hasn’t arrived or is just starting to, then winds will be S-SE…if it has passed your area then you are likely to get the W-NW clearing winds that follow a front. Want to see what I mean about “all over the place”…this is the COAMPS forecast for Wednesday morning…



According to this model SB has some WNW winds, but light. North LA, the South Bay, and North OC see N winds. And San Diego gets a mix of S winds for North SD and WNW winds for the South SD area. Freaking weird.

What this really means is…keep in mind that there may be some surf tomorrow in almost any area. Check the cams, call the lifeguard reports, and look out the window. If the swell holds, the tide drops, and the winds cooperate we might get a few waves before the holiday.

Here are the tides…good luck!

01:11AM LST 2.1 L
07:21AM LST 6.0 H
02:47PM LST -0.5 L
09:07PM LST 3.6 H

Tuesday’s Surf – A little surf window opening up

Over the weekend it looked like Tuesday was going to be pretty sloppy but as I looked at the charts this afternoon it looks like Tuesday might be a surf day.

There will still be some rain, maybe even some slight texture from light winds but overall it isn’t looking totally sloppy.

Right now we have this funky little low hanging just off the California coast. It even has some decent winds in the core of the storm and it is relatively close to SoCal…in fact it is right in the middle of our W swell window. Check out the satellite shot of this little spinner.



Swell from this storm should actually start filling in tomorrow (along with the weather)…it won’t be huge but it will definitely be bigger than what we saw on Monday. There will also be some new S swell (180-190) starting to fill in that might be able to cross up a few of the combo breaks.
For tomorrow I am looking for most of the average spots with some exposure to one or both of those swells to be holding around waist high…maybe waist high+ (with some bigger sets) on the lower tides.

The standout W facing breaks, mostly in Ventura and San Diego, as well as some of the really good combo breaks, will have some waist-chest high sets through the first part of the day but should start to see some shoulder high waves for the afternoon.

Winds for tomorrow morning look light…mostly light/variable with a semi-consistent onshore bent to it. Winds go more onshore in the afternoon but generally remain below 10-knots. Looks like the rain moves in by the afternoon for most areas. Here is the COAMPS wind forecast for Tuesday morning.



Now that I am seeing this storm holding off the coast I am a little more interested in surfing tomorrow. I am not totally committed yet…there are still a few things that bother me about tomorrow…

#1 is the morning tide – the high morning tides seriously need to fuck off.

#2 the approaching cold front – weather models almost never get these right, particularly when the storm is smaller and located around the mid-latitudes (the GFS has a weakness in the mid’s for some reason…usually undervalues wind speed projections).

#3 Rain – while it keeps the crowd down at the beach it delivers a lot of poo into the lineup…I am not sure I want to surf through another poo-slick.

Basically I am planning on keeping an eye on it through the morning…waiting for the tide to drop and crossing my fingers that it drains out, the swell comes up, and the winds stay down long enough to get a little session in. I would suggest taking it easy through the morning and getting in a camera check before driving down to the beach. Also try and stick with spots that have good exposure to the swell mix...either a really good WNW spot, good S facing spot, or good combo break.

Here are the tides…

12:42AM LST 1.9’ L
06:55AM LST 5.9’ H
02:13PM LST -0.3’ L
08:27PM LST 3.6’ H