Wednesday’s Surf – High tide sort of blows

Wednesday will be a surf day…but we have to get over the high tide hump in the morning.

In the water we will have a continuing mix of WNW and S-SW swell, which will set up some fun waves as we get to the lower tide.

For the morning expect surf in the waist-chest high range for many breaks, standout combo breaks will be bigger. Unfortunately shape is going to be very soft…and many spots will be almost completely shorebreak even when the sets come through.

As the tide drops look for average exposed breaks to fill in a touch…hitting mostly chest-shoulder high on sets. Standout combo areas, mostly through San Diego and Orange County, will have some head high sets at times. Looks like the beach breaks will have the best shape but expect fun waves at reefs and points as well.

Weather looks good for the morning. Mostly light and variable winds expected through the first part of the day. Onshore NW winds build in around 10 knots in the afternoon.

Random Surf Rant: This forecast highlights one of the quintessential dilemmas with the surf in SoCal. You have 2 issues that actually conspire to keep us from getting quality waves, particularly with these winter tides (and shorter winter days). As many of you know the morning hours are generally when conditions are the cleanest in SoCal…so if you want clean, glassy surf you want to go out in the morning. Then you get a 5’+ high tide that rolls through during the dawn patrol and flattens almost every break in SoCal.

So the wind and the tide tag team up and you spend all morning watching the race between the two…hoping the tide will drop fast enough that you can score a few waves before the wind comes up, which rarely seems to happen.

This is pretty fresh in my mind because I spent all of Tuesday morning watching this very thing happen, and then right before the surf started to get good with the lower tide...it blew out.

On Wednesday we will have similar conditions and tides…but it looks like winds may be a little lighter through mid-morning. Your best bet is to wait, (with your fingers crossed) for the tide to drop…because the surf is going to be really slow in the morning. Once the tide drops look for the biggest waves at those good combo breaks...particularly the beach breaks in SD and OC.

Waves for the weekend: More Combo swell

So I just got out of the water for the second time today (not to rub it in or anything)…and it was pretty darn good today. I surfed the local river mouth and there were some good sized overhead+ plus sets rolling through, (most of which landed on my buddy Dave’s head while he was caught in the impact zone). It was a mix of closeouts and dumpy hollow A-frames…and even though winds were a touch strong at times it stayed surfable till about 3pm or so. Anyway moving on to the weekend

Saturday is looking like a surf day but it looks like it will have wind problems too.

In the water we will have a fading but still healthy mix of WNW and SW swell. Most average breaks will have chest-shoulder high surf. Standout combo spots in San Diego and OC will see more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets.

Winds on Saturday look funky. NWS is calling for NW winds around 10 knots for the morning. I think it could be lighter for the dawn patrol but I would plan on seeing at least some onshore texture. A lot will depend on what happens tonight…if winds lay down early tonight and stay light then the dawn patrol should start off clean.

Probably you best bet is to do a cam check in the morning…if you see a lot of crumble (or white caps) I would think about shining it until mid-morning when it at least won’t be totally chilly. If it looks clean on the cams then jam down ASAP and try and get a few waves before the winds pick up. Onshore winds out of the NW 10-15+ knots will definitely pick up by the afternoon.


Sunday’s surf will be cleaner and more consistent

On Sunday we actually have another round of WNW and S-SW swell moving in to reinforce the fading swell mix. Wave heights will hold in the chest-head high range for the average spots while the standout combo breaks, (mostly SD and OC again…but with a few South Bay and Ventura spots thrown in there as well), will see shoulder-head high waves with overhead sets mixing in at times.

Shape and conditions should be pretty good. Winds shift more to the N (maybe even NNE) through the morning and will help to clean up many breaks. The swell combo will continue to give us the cross-up shape so the combo beach breaks, reefs, and some of the better points will have decent and even good shaped waves.

Again your best bet, just because the winds are a little unstable, is to make a cam check in the morning…then if it looks good (or at least “not bad” ) then head down to the beach and try to score a few waves during the morning. Onshore winds will pick up again in the afternoon.

Personally I am going to be taking Saturday off, mostly to dry the ears out and because I am a little leery of the winds, but I should be back in the water on Sunday.

Make sure to check back…I will be posting a new Surf Break Map this weekend and I should have a forecast update later Sunday afternoon.

Have a great weekend!

Travel Alert: Baja Mexico

If you have been reading the blog, or the full forecasts over on wavewatch.com, you probably have read that SoCal is going to be getting a fun mix of WNW/SW swells over the next several days.

Well in this case, what is good for SoCal is going to be pretty good for Baja too…

Because we have series of WNW pulses and S-SW southern hemi swells arriving Wednesday through Monday, almost all of Baja is going to have some sort of surf as we move through the weekend and into early next week.

Most of the average breaks, (spots that only get one of the swell directions or just isn’t that great of a break) will be consistently in the chest-shoulder high+ range.

Standout spots, (good combo breaks and the “swell magnet” spots), will be in the shoulder-overhead range fairly consistently and see some sets going a couple of feet overhead as we see the swell combo peak on Thursday/Friday and again on Sunday/Monday.

Weather looks good for the region as well. Mostly light winds in the mornings with NW flow around 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoons.

Even the Tip of Baja (Cabo and the East Cape) will be getting some action from these swells. They will be a bit smaller because they are shadowed from a lot of the W-WNW energy but you will still see surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the average spots while the best standout breaks in the area see head high sets as the SW swells peak (one on Thursday and another on Sunday/Monday).

Tickets from LAX to Cabo are cheap right now…$273 roundtrip on Expedia.com! (if you left tomorrow Feb 28th and came back on Thursday March 6th).

But you don’t need to fly…there will be a ton of places to score waves within driving distance.

If I were single and didn't have to pay rent I would be on it...instead I need to live vicariously through you guys.

Let me know how it is if you head down that way...good luck!

Thursday – Yeah a Surf Day!

Thursday looks like a surf day…a fun surf day.

We have a lot of things going for us tomorrow. We have a decent mix of W windswell, new WNW swell (290-300) and a fun-sized SW swell (190-210). We are also expecting light-offshore winds and cleaner conditions through the morning. Then to top it off water quality is finally starting to improve.

Surfwise, thanks to the swell mix, most spots will hold in the waist-shoulder range. Good combo spots and the swell-magnet standout breaks will have some bigger head high sets. Biggest surf will likely be at the standouts in San Diego, and a few in OC, the South Bay, and Southern Ventura. Other areas will be smaller but should have fun waves as well.

If you got time to get some waves tomorrow I think that morning through about lunchtime will be your best bet. Winds are expected to shift a little more onshore in the afternoon. I think there is enough swell in the water that you don’t have to drive very far to get waves...your local combo spot should be plenty fun. You could still check the cams in the morning to be safe but personally I am going to head down to the beach after finishing the morning reports.

Thursday’s Surf – Some waves with a side of high-tide

Thursday looks pretty surfable...our NW and SSW swells will continue to send in some waves in the chest-high+ range while standout spots see bigger sets. The Wind, which is expected to blow onshore throughout Wednesday night (adding some windswell to the swell mix), will switch back to the N-NE and will help to clean up conditions.

About the only bummer is the 5’+ high tide that rolls through mid-morning. That high of a tide will bog down a lot of areas and push the surf up close to the beach giving it near shorebreak shape.

Expect the biggest and best surf at breaks in San Diego, The South Bay, and parts of OC that can handle the higher tide (good sandbars, reefs, or points). Other spots will be smaller and less consistent…particularly up towards Santa Barbara.