The mix of SW and NW swell will hold for the next few days…possibly building in a little more from the WNW-NW by Friday while the SW swell fades out. Look for more combo swell over the weekend…and if the North Pacific has its way…we will probably see even more WNW/S-SW combo through most of next week as well.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
We will have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), a new building WNW-NW swell (280-300), and some increasing local windswell. The new WNW’er should already be showing a bit of energy by morning, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some overhead sets hitting the top NW spots in Ventura and the South Bay on the lower tides…eventually it will push down the coast and so look for Southern San Diego to pick up more energy around sundown. Overall it looks like the average SW and WNW facing spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some plus sets showing at the average combo spots. Standout breaks will be chest-shoulder high on most sets with some head high/overhead waves mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Looks like winds will be fairly clean in the morning…there may be a little variable onshore winds but they will be on the light side (hopefully below 5 knots). The winds switch onshore by the afternoon and push in out of the WNW-NW around 10-15+ knots.
Saturday
Both the WNW-NW swell (280-300) and the now leftover SW swell (195-215) will be backing down on Saturday…but despite the fading swell Saturday will probably be pretty fun. Look for most spots to hold in the waist-chest high+ range while the standout NW facing spots (and excellent combo spots) see some shoulder-head high surf. A few of the best breaks, mostly in South SD, will have some bigger sets…going a little overhead during the morning. Winds/Weather: Expect light and variable morning winds for most areas and some pockets of light offshore flow near passes and canyons. Winds will stay light through the first half of the day. NW winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.
Sunday
Sunday will see mostly leftovers as the WNW-NW’er and the SW swell both continue to fade away. Look for most spots to be in the knee-waist high range with a few bigger sets at the combo beach breaks. The standout NW facing spots, again mostly in Southern SD, will have more size with surf in the chest-high range and some inconsistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Expect light and variable morning winds for most areas and some pockets of light offshore flow near passes and canyons. Winds will stay light through the first half of the day. NW winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.
Monday
The surf comes back up on Monday a bit as a new NW swell (285-300 but really the most of the energy is going to be 295+ so don’t expect it to hit every where) and a new small pulse of SW swell (200-220) helps to prop up the leftovers from the weekend. Average spots will be in the waist high range with some chest high sets at the better combo breaks. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly Ventura/SouthBay/South San Diego, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets on the lower tides. Like I said…the NW’er is going to come in pretty steep so expect mostly playful sizes at the average spots and the bigger sets at the best NW spots that pull in and focus the 290+ swells. Winds/Weather: Expect light and variable morning winds for most areas and some pockets of light offshore flow near passes and canyons. Winds will stay light through the first half of the day. NW winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Still a lot of activity showing on the charts for the North Pacific…a lot of it is positioned in the higher-latitudes, which means that it is outside of Socal’s swell window, but there are a few systems that are forecast to dip some winds down far enough to set up some waves for us.
Surfwise, since these storms aren’t really all that strong and they aren’t positioned that great (at least for the majority of Socal). For the weekend…I am expecting a little bigger burst of WNW-NW energy (280-300) moves in on Friday and holds overnight into Saturday morning with some more consistent shoulder-head high surf at the better breaks and some overhead sets at the standouts.
Early next week we will see another decent NW swell (285-300 but best at spots that are exposed to the 290-300 swell directions) that would hit on Monday/Tuesday and bring in more chest-shoulder high surf for the average winter spots and some head high-overhead sets at the standouts.
Further out the NPAC charts continue to show a strong spring storm forming over the next few days…pulling together the most crucial swell-producing elements over the weekend and into Monday. Check out the charts…
Winds
Waves Heights
Swell Periods
This storm has a few days to actually develop but if it pulls together the way these charts are showing we would see a new round of WNW-NW swell (285-300) filling in on Wednesday (March 31) and then eventually peaking on Thursday (April 1). To make things even more interesting it looks like the storm producing this swell will drop down along the California coast…possibly even running some rain and wind over Socal right around the same time the swell arrives, which obviously wouldn’t be all that good for conditions. Fortunately we have got some time before we have to worry about the weather…but you are going to want to keep it in mind while planning your surf week.
Sizewise…this one looks good for shoulder-head high+ surf for most of the average WNW-NW facing spots…with some overhead+ sets mixing in if the local windswell gets a jump on the bandwagon as the storm passes over. The top NW facing spots could easily go several feet overhead, and possibly hit double-overhead at the really exposed spots. Remember that a lot of this is hypothetical…I will keep you guys posted as the storm develops over the weekend.
South Pacific
We are seeing some fun swell action from the SPAC but like I mentioned in the last forecast the time gaps between the bigger storms are still pretty long. There was a pretty good SW pulse (195-220) that peaked midweek and is now on the way down. This will fade Friday/Saturday but still put a few semi-rideable sets into the summer breaks. Sunday and Monday will see a mix of background S-SW energy (190-220) from a couple of weak storms that followed behind the bigger one. Most spots will see some knee-waist high waves from these background pulses…but a few of the standout SW breaks through OC and SD will have some chest high sets.
Further out high-pressure starts to set up shop to the east of New Zealand and flattens out the SW swell window of the SPAC…but it does open the door for a little bit more S swell to form up.
A new storm just pushed off Antarctica and will intensify over the next couple of days as it travels N-NNE. It is even supposed to sort of encapsulate itself…what is sometimes referred to as a “cut-off” low-pressure…and hold in places as it does, keeping a nice little area of fetch pointed our direction. If winds live up to the forecasts we should be seeing some new long-period S-swell (170-180) arriving around Thursday (April 1)…and then peaking more on Friday/Saturday (April 2-3).
Even Further out there is suddenly a lot of activity showing on the last couple of Long-range charts positioned out between New Zealand and Tahiti…and it looks like there will be some strong extra-tropical mixing about that time…there might be a good shot at some larger SW swell setting up for around April 8-10th…we will have to see how this shakes out.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, March 29th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
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