The storm has actually just started the key portion of its development, where the colder low-pressure near Antarctica mixes with a warm/wet low-pressure from the mid-latitudes. Over the next couple of days the latent-heat energy of the warm air will be released as it cools in the colder low-pressure...this will help to supercharge wind speeds...and hopefully mean that we will get bigger surf down the road.
Here is a chart that shows a lot of it happening.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGTMQr4AcutQKOrOWSXOQFPNPAF_L_dEbI7bZdQj5HkuGhLNEayTGmaHogpcSpE68fu262Pa65g7_d9mPz05KZ5lVTZ7AUITZnSZIpoNrH7RT1iC8EP0cypOZLlyp919KKEhkYy-yA/s400/Pressure.jpg)
Here is a shot from the Quikscat satellite showing increasing wind speeds in the good part of the storms core.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd-wwkzAE2B9oP9Tk7Jlv8nPbO7oVjeHDEv9dyfMlGZuR9elYVEQpCTIuUJhzyRfALnKOmoTzkkdcJlILMwY_x5J6gPnYDCZy6U_RTMpX98yZWWifVdWWynnCHNs2YfRhLSBt_Z6zp/s400/Quikscat.jpg)
And finally here is a shot of the WWIII swell model, which is showing the dominant swell period...as you can see it has the new S-SW swell moving into Central America and Southern Mexico on the 18th, and that it will start showing in Baja on the 19th and finally arrive in SoCal on the 20th.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFzE2ptv2PJzbZ8xv7kDIbedSZdKzuKpLxteT9m3KanPuOO9zO9_ZN9QVH5E6_oVSxQvMVM5Ohbt4OmpBep3wCuwA9qHV14ODiOPnPLtffVs7P0mCbzuzrisHfBNnEpQkmZB2AQzg4/s400/Swell_period.jpg)
The storm still has some developing to do before we get concrete wave heights for SoCal but at this point it does look like the S facing spots will be around head high while the standout S facing standouts see some overhead sets, which sounds good to me after all of the flatness we have see over the last few days.
Here is a link to the old post if you haven't read it already
http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/07/something-brewing-in-south-pacifichmmm.html
How big do you think it will be in Mazatlan, and how many days will the swell last? Thanks Coconutz!
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