Friday, January 30, 2009

Waves for the weekend – well at least there is football on

It does not look very surfable this weekend.

Weather is going to be great and winds good...just no swell in the water.

We are going to have a mix of leftover WNW and SW energy...neither of which will amount to much. On average it looks like flat-knee high surf for most of the average exposed spots. A few of the top breaks, with really good sand and swell exposure will have some knee high+ surf...but there won’t be much more than that...maybe a touch more consistency at the NW spots on Sunday as a little more windswell fills in.

Weather like I said will be good...sunny skies, more offshore winds...basically great beach weather. Afternoon winds will get a little more “variable” but if we had waves it would be rideable most of the day.

There really isn’t a best call this weekend...if you see a semi-rideable wave paddle out...it isn’t going to get better around the corner or later in the day. I would give you the tides but really it isn’t going to matter.

OK enough of “Debbie Downer” forecast...long-range is looking a lot more interesting. Both the North and the South Pacific are becoming more active and it looks like we are going to see some building, if not playful combo swell around the middle of next week.

Right now forecast charts are showing a couple of new lows forming in about 2-3 days in the North Pacific that line up WNW swell for the 4-5th...there will also be some small SSW swell in the water about the same time that will help to break up the NPAC energy. Check out the WavewatchIII “primary” swell-period chart...



You can see the swells overlapping along the Socal region in about 4-5 days or so.

Overall it is not going to be that big...and some of the WNW swell still needs to be produced (it is only squiggly lines at a chart at this point)...but I am expecting some fun waist-chest high surf for most of the exposed combo spots by Thursday of next week...and the potential for some chest-shoulder high sets at the top spots. Like I said...not great...but definitely more fun than watching a flat ocean.

Check out the swells that are a bit further out in the forecast...looks like we could get some more combo swell around the 10-11th if things continue to come together.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Friday’s Surf – a few tiny waves

Friday won’t be what I would call a surf day...but the weather/winds will continue to be nice and this little tiny Southern Hemi swell and background WNW combo will manage to sneak a few semi-rideable waves into the top spots.

Personally I didn’t manage a surf today but I was keeping an eye on the beach...and I saw a few waist high sets sneaking through some of the top North OC spots...which is a little bigger than I thought it would be on Thursday. It wasn’t great or anything but I have to admit the strong offshores made it look a lot more appealing than it would have otherwise. The winds didn’t hold up everywhere...a few other regions looked a bit fugly later in the afternoon.

Anyway onto Friday...it looks like the little SW/WNW swell mix will continue to sort of limp through. It won’t be big, it won’t have much behind it, but if you have the right equipment (and the right attitude) you will probably be able catch a soft section here and there.



The average spots will be right around knee high on Friday. Top combo spots, mostly through San Diego/Orange County, will have some very inconsistent knee-waist high sets.

Winds will be offshore again in the morning...mostly in the 10-15 knot range but with some stronger gusts in the North LA/Ventura areas. Winds get variable to variable onshore by the afternoon (there will be some cleaner pockets near passes and canyons).

I am thinking that longboards will be the best call tomorrow...but you might (if you weigh like 130lbs) be able to get away with a fishier shape...just plan on using the super small wave gear. Top combo breaks, mostly the beach breaks, will have the better shape...but a few of the points/reefs might be ok on the lower tides. Just plan on it being small, sunny, a bit windy, (with ‘nad-freezing water), and you won’t be disappointed.

Here are the tides for tomorrow...

05:11AM LST 1.5 L
10:47AM LST 4.1 H
05:22PM LST 0.5 L
11:49PM LST 4.4 H

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Flatness for Thursday – I guess we can make sandcastles

Thursday is not going to be a surf day...the conditions will be great...but there will be almost no swell in the water.

We are going to have a tiny mix of leftover WNW energy and an itsy-bitsy touch of southern hemi energy. Wave heights are going to get totally worked over by the midmorning tide...(and they won’t be much better on the lower tides in the afternoon)...so that isn’t going to help things either.

On average we can expect knee high to almost flat for most average spots during the dawn patrol. Top WNW facing spots in San Diego, maybe in Southern Ventura as well, will have knee high surf with a few waist high softies on the lower tides.

Winds and weather will be great...Santa Ana flow...moderately offshore for most areas through the morning...stronger offshore gusts around Southern San Diego and in North LA. Afternoon winds will be variable, generally below 10-knots.

The forecast isn’t looking very good for the next few days. The surf is just going to get smaller on Friday and Saturday. Checkout the CDIPer sideways forecast...that is a lot of dark blue.



At this point, based on the forecast run this afternoon, it looks like we will start getting more WNW swell around the 4-5th of February...and possibly some SW swell around the 10th...these swells aren’t set in stone but I have seen the storms on the long-range charts for a couple of days, hopefully we get them to brew up and break us out of the flat spell.

Here are the tides...not that they are going to help you much.

04:24AM LST 1.5 L
10:09AM LST 4.7 H
04:58PM LST 0.1 L
11:17PM LST 4.3 H