Friday, October 31, 2008

Waves for the weekend - Happy Halloween!

We are going to have some surf this weekend. The waves are already in the water but actual shape/conditions are going to depend a lot on the approaching cold front. Right now it looks like the storm is stalling out and won't be able to push as much wind/rain over SoCal as the earlier forecasts predicted...we may still get some weather Sunday and Monday but it looks a lot more rideable on Saturday.

Hopefully this storm will fizzle out completely before it gets to the SoCal coast and just let us have the surf without jacking up our winds and weather.



Oh by the way the Daylight Savings Time switch is this weekend...make sure to set your clocks (Saturday night at 2am!)

To make the forecast a little more clear I broke each day out into its own section.

Saturday's Surf - The new SW'er (190-210) will hold while WNW (280-300) energy begins to build. Most spots will push into the waist-chest high+ range. The standout SW facing spots and the good combo spots will have chest-head high sets through the morning and some potentially overhead sets by the afternoon.

Saturday's weather - Looks like we could get a surf window on Saturday...winds are expected to be light and variable through the morning and then stay on the light side (under 10-knots) through most of the afternoon. Hopefully it will be clean enough that we can finally get some halfway decent combo swell.

Sunday's Surf - The SW swell holds but a new pulse of W-WNW swell (270-300) starts to arrive. It will be showing pretty well in Santa Barbara and Ventura in the morning but won't really get going in LA, OC, and SD until late in the afternoon evening (it will peak in those areas overnight into Monday). Average spots will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout W facing breaks and the combo spots see overhead sets.

Sunday's Weather - Not as good as Saturday...W winds around 5-10 knots through the morning with some increasing clouds. W winds 10-20 knots by the afternoon with the potential for gusts topping out around 25 knots.


Saturday will likely be the best day...but not the biggest since the majority of the W-WNW swell arrives Sunday and Monday. Still there should be plenty of surf at the well exposed spots. San Diego will have the most size/consistency overall but there will be fun waves at most of the better combo spots throughout the other regions as well. I don't think that you will have to drive too far for surf, there will waves all over, but you may want to focus on spots that aren't super wind sensitive.

Sunday...well I am not ready to write off Sunday totally...but personally I am going to be keeping a "weather eye" on conditions around my house as well as the buoys and the cams...I am hoping that winds stay light through the morning, at least enough that we can get a few waves before the winds come up.

Here are the tides...

Saturday
12:14AM 3.4' High
04:13AM 2.7' Low
10:34AM 5.4' High
06:29PM 0.3' Low

Sunday
01:24AM 3.2' High
03:30AM 2.9' Low
10:07AM 5.1' High
06:24PM 0.6' Low

And finally have a great holiday tonight...Happy Halloween! Stay safe!

Random Surf Report - A couple of Halloween nuggets

The wind can't really make up its mind this morning, neither can the weather...but both are leaning in our favor right now. About the only thing that is still a bit weak-sauce is the giant high tide that we are slowly trying to creep past.

I just took a tour of the beach breaks up here in North OC and there were a few fun, but soft looking bowls coming through. Winds had gone from light, to onshore, and were now offshore, but looking outside as I type this it looks like they are have slipped back to light/variable. Really what I am saying is f#$k the weather...it is just messing with us.

Here is the latest shot from the COAMPS forecast.



Surfwise the little SW swell has filled in a touch more and it looks like some increasing WNW energy is also starting to creep up on the buoys...so it is starting to get a bit more surfable.

Most waves were in the waist to chest high range but occasionally I would see a shoulder high set...it was soft but I did see a couple of guys shwacking it when it set up right.

I don't know how long this little window will last but if you are close the beach it might be worth a quick surf check...particularly if the wind holds off enough to let the tide drop a little bit.

Anyways I might go and dress up like a surfer for a couple of hours if everything holds together.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Friday's Surf - Great...now we have rain to go with our small waves

Friday is not going to be surf day. Our swell will be mostly smaller leftovers and it looks like there is a chance at some rain as well.

We are going to have a mix of small SW energy...there is actually a new SW'er (195-210+) that is slowly starting to fill in but it doesn't really get going until the afternoon...we will also have some building WNW windswell starting to filter in about the same time.

On average we can expect most spots in the knee-waist high range...maybe a few plus sets starting to show at the really exposed combo spots in San Diego. A few of the top breaks may get to about chest high+ during the afternoon. The tide swing is going to honk us up again...so expect very swampy shape as the tide peaks around midmorning.

Winds and weather are going to be a bit funky as well...there is a cold front moving over the Cali coast over the next couple of days (actually it is two fronts...one tomorrow and one Sunday/Monday)...and it is supposed to bring some increasing wind as well as a bit of rain showers. Right now it looks like most of the showers will hit up around SB and Ventura but they are saying it may spread further south as well.

Check out the winds for tomorrow AM...it looks like increasing southerly winds for the Northern Counties (SB, Ventura) and lighter SE winds further south. A lot will depend on how fast the front moves so make sure to use the surf cams and live wind observations to get a good read on things at your local breaks tomorrow.



Really with the lack of swell and less than stellar conditions I am not expecting much surf. San Diego spots might be OK before the high tide but it is still going to be fairly sketchy from a weather/wind standpoint. Personally I am way more fired up that my oldest son (a 3 year old) is going as Optimus Prime for Halloween.

Have a great holiday tomorrow!

Here are the tides

03:53AM 2.4' Low
10:06AM 5.7' High
05:44PM 0.1' Low