Flatness for Thursday – Not much to ride

Thursday will not be a surf day.

Our swell mix will continue to wind down on Thursday…and while it won’t go totally flat everywhere in Socal it will certainly feel like it. Swellwise we are going to see the weak leftovers from our NW swell (295-300 now), some small/inconsistent SW energy (200-220), and almost nominal windswell energy that is just sort of swirling around on the buoys.



Average spots are going to be ankle-knee high through the morning…a little closer to knee high before (and after) the high tide swamps things out. Top NW facing spots, mostly through parts of San Diego, will hit around knee-waist high with a few rare waist high+ sets on the lower tides.

Winds are forecast to be light tomorrow morning but we are expecting a weak cold front to push down the coast over Socal throughout the day. If the front speeds up there is a chance we would see some building onshore texture in some areas. Look for building W-WSW winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon…not enough to really blow out the protected spots, but we have no surf so whatever. Even the wind model is sort of ambivalent for tomorrow…almost like it can’t be bothered to make up its mind…it must be ticked that we don’t have any surf too.



Really the best bet tomorrow is going to be surfing your pillow…that is what I am planning on doing…but if you absolutely have to surf (some sort of OCD thing you have) then try and get to the beach early before the tide gets to high and the winds come up to much.

Here are the tides

03:16AM LST 2.4 L
09:33AM LST 6.2 H (don’t surf here)
05:16PM LST -0.6 L
11:57PM LST 3.5 H

Remember the new regional forecasts are up and running…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Waves for Wednesday – a little smaller and now with new forecasts!

Wednesday will be rideable (in places)…but again the high tide and mostly leftover swell mix will keep it from being much of a surf day.

In the water we are going to see a mix of fading NW energy (290-300), some minor pulses from the SW (200-220), and a touch of local NW windswell that will creep into exposed spots by the afternoon.



Wave heights are going to average in the knee high range for most of the average spots…though a few of the better-than-average breaks may pull in some waist high sets on the lower tides. Standout NW facing spots and the good combo breaks, mostly in San Diego, will be in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. Expect some long waits between waves even at the top spots. Also the tide is going to be a bit of a pain…the 6’+ high tide peaks right around 9am and it will do its best to swamp out rideable shape almost everywhere.

Winds look ok in the morning, not great, just ok. Overall I think we are going to see light and variable conditions for most areas during the dawn patrol…maybe a few pockets of bump here and there as some patchy fog moves around the coast. W winds around 10-knots will push in around lunchtime and should be getting into the 10-15 knot range later in the evening. Here is a shot from the COAMPS model…it is still pretty confident that winds will be light (even light-offshore in some places for the morning)…but I think that may be a bit optimistic considering the fog (and the weird fog winds that usually come along with it).



With our swell mix on the weak side, and the stupid high tide steamrolling through midmorning, I don’t think you should spend lot of time trying to get waves tomorrow. If you absolutely have to surf, try and get out early while the winds are still light and the tide hasn’t come up too far…it won’t be very good but at least you’ll have a shot at getting some rideable waves.

Hey gang…check it out…I set up some new forecast pages for each of the SoCal counties. These forecasts are going to be dialed in better for each region, with local tides, local wave heights as well as winds and conditions. They may be a little more bare-bones at first as I get into the groove of setting them up. I will continue to post the more detailed overview and the Long-Range Surf Forecast for all of Socal on this lovely page.

Here are the links for each of the regions...I am still working out some of the links and formatting issues but they are up and running. Let me know what you think.

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

And finally here are the tides…

02:40AM LST 2.1 L
08:52AM LST 6.3 H
04:23PM LST -0.7 L
10:50PM LST 3.6 H

Transworld Surf Forecast – the North Pacific is set to go boom

If you read the long-range forecast that I posted this morning (or have looked at any of the swell models) you already know that the North Pacific is getting ready to lay down a smacking on the West Coast.

The majority of the energy will be heading to the Pacific NW as well as Northern and Central California. (Socal will get some waves but will be quite a bit smaller thanks to shadowing from Point Conception as well as the Nearshore Islands).

I go into a little more detail for Northern and Central California in the forecast for Transworld, and talk a little bit more about why and how this storm is pulling together…give it a read when you get a chance.

http://surf.transworld.net/features/west-coast-surf-forecast/